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Warner Bros.
ByRyan Scott
With summer nearly over, the fall movie season is almost upon us. It's certainly early but for the time being, things are looking good. September used to be a bit of a dumping ground month for studios, with that post-summer hangover setting in badly. In recent years though, things have changed. It's now become fertile ground for the right movie to break out in a big way. It very much seems like Warner Bros. and director Tim Burton have just such a movie in "Beetlejuice Beetlejuice." Well over three decades after the original "Beetlejuice" hit theaters, the long-awaited sequel is poised to become a breakout smash hit.
"Beetlejuice 2" is currently looking at an opening in the $81 to $94 million range when it hits theaters next weekend, per Box Office Theory. Warner Bros., for what it's worth, is being a little more conservative, with the studio estimating a debut in the $65 to $75 million range, per The Hollywood Reporter. Let's be perfectly clear that even on the very low end of these current projections, this is going to be a huge win for all involved. Consider for a moment that the original "Beetlejuice" made just shy of $75 million. Granted, that was in 1988 and not adjusted for inflation. Even so, it appears Burton's sequel has a great shot at surpassing that total on opening weekend in North America alone.
As far as September opening weekends go, 2017's "It" still holds the overall record with a ridiculous $123 million. The film went on to earn more than $700 million worldwide. 2019's "It Chapter Two" is also up there with a $91 million opening. In the pandemic era, "Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings" also set a Labor Day weekend record with $75 million in 2021. While "It" may be out of reach based on these early estimates, Burton's latest could easily overtake "Shang-Chi" and "It Chapter Two." That's very good company to be in.
At the same time, we have to consider the fact that box office tracking has been off by a lot in certain situations in recent years. "It" was pegged for a $60 million opening before shattering expectations. That's an extreme example, but movies like "Spider-Man: No Way Home" and, more recently, "Inside Out 2" have decimated expectations. This has the makings of a film that could do the same.
Can Beetlejuice Beetlejuice be 2024's Top Gun: Maverick?
Warner Bros.
The sequel picks up roughly 35 years later. After an unexpected family tragedy, the Deetz family returns home to Winter River. Still haunted by Beetlejuice, Lydia's life is turned upside down when her rebellious teenage daughter Astrid finds the model of the town in the attic. The portal to the Afterlife is accidentally opened and chaos ensues. Michael Keaton, Winona Ryder, and Catherine O'Hara return to reprise their roles from the original. "Wednesday" star Jenna Ortega is playing Lydia's daughter, with Justin Theroux ("The Leftovers") Monica Bellucci ("Spectre"), and Willem Dafoe ("Poor Things") rounding out the main ensemble.
I don't want to set the expectation that this movie will over-perform against already great tracking. Even if it comes in on the lower end of expectations, it's in great shape. The only issue would be if its budget ballooned to $150 million or more. That having been said, this does have a lot of the markers we've come to associate with these breakout legacy sequels, such as 2015's "Jurassic World" ($1.67 billion worldwide) and, more recently, "Top Gun: Maverick" ($1.49 billion worldwide). It's got generational nostalgia. It's got beloved stars both new and old. It's got a director going back to the well that helped make him an A-lister in the first place. It's also got a horror angle, which only ever helps. It's all lining up perfectly.
I'm not saying it's going to make $1.5 billion and become one of the biggest movies ever. I am saying that a $100 million opening wouldn't be out of bounds. From there, who knows? If it's a true crowd-pleaser such as "Jurassic World," "It," or "Maverick," great things can happen. It will certainly benefit from a lack of strong competition, all due respect to "Speak No Evil" and "Never Let Go." In fact, it's basically got a clear path until September 20 when "Transformers One" comes out. Even then, these films are going for slightly different audiences. All in all, "Beetlejuice Beetlejuice" could easily rule the box office until "Joker: Folie a Deux" comes around in early October.
At worst, we're looking at a legacy sequel that will help lift the box office after a couple of dry weeks at the end of August. At best, we could be looking at one of the year's biggest breakout hits, assuming all goes well. No matter what, it looks like Burton is going to find himself back atop the box office for the first time in quite a while.
"Beetlejuice Beetlejuice" hits theaters on September 6, 2024.
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